Foreign Currency Market

The dollar during the year 2006


h1 Jueves, Mayo 1st, 2008

Although the dollar fall in 2006, the American currency is still the principal reserve currency of most of the countries of the world. The actual situation that is live in the Middle East and the increase of the crude and gold prices have provoked that the situation of the American economy has become weaker in these last years, even if the American power continues having its hegemony.
Expectations in 2006 regarding the dollar were that, even the fall that we noticed at the beginning of this year,the dollar would raise its value, although the situation continued this way until quoting lower than the euro.
During this year expectations were very difficult to foresee and there has been a fight between the federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in politics refered to interest rates. What was predicted with the dollar in 2006 happened a year later since the mortgage crisis in the United States. Many borrowers stopped paying and that provoked the bankrupt of many financiers and this took us to a general collapse. Automatically the titular of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernake, had to go with the principal Central Banks of the world to inject liquidity at the market. This measure has not had the expected result and they took the decision of reducing the interest rate half point, leaving it in 4%. At the same time, the titular of the European Central Bank, Jean Claude Trichet, said that the interest rate would be fixed and would continue in a 4%.
The strength of the european currency and the critical situation of the dollar in 2006, continued its way during this year. The economy stability of the countries members of the european community make possible have interest rates fixed, while in the United States it is very difficul as the deficit of the commercial balance, as a consecuence of the excess of imports from China, make the fall of the dollar take part of an state politics and not just a fall as many predict.

The dollar gains ground in front of the yen


h1 Miércoles, Marzo 5th, 2008

Since 2006 the dollar has been losing ground in front of the other foreign currencies. One of the examples that we had in these last days was the fall of the dollar in front of the Japanese yen. After reaching a minimum value of 109,9 yenes per dollar, the trend changed and the Japanese currency devalued more than 0,3% against the dollar, finishing at 110.26%. During this last year the dollas has devalued a 7% regarding to the yen value.The decision of the Central Bank of Japan of manteining the level of the interest rates in a 0,5% annual, brought as a consequence that the dollar continue falling in front of the Japanese currency. Other factor that will be for the dollar were the declarations of Yasuo Fukuda, the first minister of Japan, that said that “the growing trend of the yen has been very fast and can become a problem in the short term”. These declarations brought calm to the markets and the dollar gained ground in front of the yen. There are some economies in which the strengthening of their local currencies in front of the dollar is not advisable as most of their exports are to the United States. A dollar devaluation, would decrease the amount of dollar incomes because of the exports.